Fixed stake
Every qualified selection receives exactly the same stake, so profit and loss measure the selection model rather than the staking plan.
Read the fixed stake guideStrategy hub
Football betting strategies, compared on identical selections
Every strategy below receives exactly the same selections from the robot — only the stake differs. That makes the comparison fair: any difference in bankroll comes from the staking plan alone, not from cherry-picked bets.
Sample size: 8 settled bets. This is far too small a sample to draw conclusions from. Figures are published for transparency, not as evidence that any strategy is profitable.
Head-to-head performance
| Strategy | Settled | W / L | Strike | Staked | P/L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed stake | 2 | 1/1 | 50.0% | €20.00 | €14.50 | 72.5% |
| Percentage bankroll | 2 | 1/1 | 50.0% | €20.00 | €14.50 | 72.5% |
| Fractional Kelly | 2 | 1/1 | 50.0% | €20.68 | €13.82 | 66.8% |
| Capped recovery | 2 | 1/1 | 50.0% | €20.00 | €14.50 | 72.5% |
Figures come from settled paper bets recorded before kick-off. No strategy is claimed to be profitable — the sample is not yet large enough to support that conclusion.
Percentage bankroll
A fixed share of the current bankroll is staked, so bets grow after wins and shrink automatically after losses.
Read the percentage bankroll guideFractional Kelly
Stake size is derived from the estimated edge and the price, then divided down (quarter Kelly) to absorb model error.
Read the fractional kelly guideCapped recovery
The stake steps up after a loss for a strictly limited number of stages, then resets. It is the highest-risk of the four.
Read the capped recovery guideHow the four strategies differ
All four take the same bet at the same price at the same moment. The only variable is how much money goes on. Fixed staking isolates the quality of the selections; percentage staking compounds and de-risks; fractional Kelly ties stake size to the estimated edge; capped recovery accepts far deeper drawdowns in exchange for faster recovery from short losing runs.
Each strategy also runs strictly sequentially: it cannot start its next bet until its previous bet has been settled. That keeps every ledger a clean, chronological record rather than a pile of overlapping positions.
Settled bets
8
Strike rate
50.0%
Average odds
2.95
Net P/L
€57.32