Fixed stake
Every qualified selection receives exactly the same stake, so profit and loss measure the selection model rather than the staking plan.
Read the fixed stake guideStrategy hub
Football betting strategies, compared on identical selections
Every strategy below receives exactly the same selections from the robot — only the stake differs. That makes the comparison fair: any difference in bankroll comes from the staking plan alone, not from cherry-picked bets.
Sample size: 84 settled selections. This is far too small a sample to draw conclusions from. Figures are published for transparency, not as evidence that any strategy is profitable.
Head-to-head performance
| Strategy | Strategy bets | W / L | Win rate | Staked | Net P/L | Betting ROI | Bankroll return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed stake | 84 | 36/48 | 42.9% | €840.00 | €87.50 | 10.4% | 8.8% |
| Percentage bankroll | 84 | 36/48 | 42.9% | €908.72 | €82.97 | 9.1% | 8.3% |
| Fractional Kelly | 84 | 36/48 | 42.9% | €1316.00 | €338.59 | 25.7% | 33.9% |
| Capped recovery | 84 | 36/48 | 42.9% | €900.45 | €355.57 | 39.5% | 35.6% |
Figures come from settled paper bets recorded before kick-off. No strategy is claimed to be profitable — the sample is not yet large enough to support that conclusion.
Percentage bankroll
A fixed share of the current bankroll is staked, so bets grow after wins and shrink automatically after losses.
Read the percentage bankroll guideFractional Kelly
Stake size is derived from the estimated edge and the price, then divided down (quarter Kelly) to absorb model error.
Read the fractional kelly guideCapped recovery
The stake is whatever is needed to clear the outstanding deficit plus one base-stake profit at the current price, then hard-capped. It is the highest-risk of the four.
Read the capped recovery guideHow the four strategies differ
All four take the same bet at the same price at the same moment. The only variable is how much money goes on. Fixed staking isolates the quality of the selections; percentage staking compounds and de-risks; fractional Kelly ties stake size to the estimated edge; capped recovery accepts far deeper drawdowns in exchange for faster recovery from short losing runs.
Each strategy also runs strictly sequentially: it cannot start its next bet until its previous bet has been settled. That keeps every ledger a clean, chronological record rather than a pile of overlapping positions.
Settled selections
84
Win rate
42.9%
Average odds
3.07
Net P/L
€864.63
The theory behind these staking plans
This page documents what BetBuddy runs in production. The general mathematics behind each approach — and the reasons the textbook versions are rarely used unmodified — is covered separately in the guides.
- The Kelly criterion — the f* = (bp − q) / b formula, and why full Kelly is too aggressive in practice.
- Bankroll management — unit sizing, drawdowns, risk of ruin and why recovery staking is the riskiest of the four.
- Betting ROI explained and win rate vs ROI — how to read the numbers in the table above.
- Football betting strategies explained and fixed stake vs percentage bankroll — longer-form articles with worked examples.
Reading this from the United States?
The three-way moneyline, decimal-to-American odds conversion and the kick-off times behind these selections are covered separately on the soccer betting strategies page.