Guide
Win rate vs ROI
Win rate on its own says nothing about profitability, because it ignores price. A 70% strike rate at 1.30 loses money; a 35% strike rate at 3.20 makes it. The only meaningful benchmark is the break-even probability of the prices being taken.
Published 2026-09-01 · Last reviewed 2026-09-01 · BetBuddy editorial
Break-even probability
Every price implies the strike rate needed to break even. Beat it and the record is profitable; fall short and it is not, however high the raw percentage looks.
break-even probability = 1 / decimal odds
| Decimal odds | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 1.30 | 76.9% |
| 1.50 | 66.7% |
| 1.80 | 55.6% |
| 2.00 | 50.0% |
| 2.50 | 40.0% |
| 3.20 | 31.3% |
Two records, opposite conclusions
Take 100 bets of €10 in each case. Record A wins 70 at odds of 1.30: profit is 70 × €3 = €210 against 30 × €10 = €300 lost, a net loss of €90 and a Betting ROI of −9%.
Record B wins 35 at odds of 3.20: profit is 35 × €22 = €770 against 65 × €10 = €650 lost, a net profit of €120 and a Betting ROI of +12%.
The 70% record is the losing one. Any published strike rate quoted without its average price is uninterpretable.
| Record | Win rate | Average odds | Net profit | Betting ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 70% | 1.30 | −€90 | −9% |
| B | 35% | 3.20 | +€120 | +12% |
The comparison that is actually useful
Compare realised win rate against the average break-even probability of the prices taken. If a method takes an average price of 2.20, it needs better than 45.5% to profit; a 48% strike rate is then a good result and a 44% strike rate is not.
This also explains why a minimum price rule changes the shape of a record. BetBuddy never selects below 1.80, so its break-even strike rate can never exceed 55.6% — a lower win rate at longer prices is the expected pattern, not a warning sign.
Variance around the win rate
Strike rate is also noisy. A true 45% method will routinely show anywhere from roughly 35% to 55% across a run of 100 bets. Reading a short-run win rate as the method's real accuracy is one of the most common analytical errors in betting.
Judge the record on Betting ROI against a stated sample size, and treat win rate as descriptive colour rather than as the headline.