Guide
Football betting bankroll management
Bankroll management does not create an edge. It determines whether you are still betting by the time an edge has had a chance to show up.
Define the bankroll and the unit
The bankroll is money set aside for betting alone. The unit is the standard stake, typically 1–2% of it. On a €1,000 bankroll at 1%, one unit is €10 — the base stake used throughout this site's statistics.
Plan for the drawdown, not the profit
Losing runs of eight or nine bets are routine at even-money prices; they are expected, not evidence that a model is broken. The relevant question is whether your unit size lets you keep betting through one.
A 1% unit survives a 20-bet losing run with 80% of the bankroll intact. A 10% unit does not.
Choosing a staking plan
The four plans tracked here trade off growth against variance in different ways.
- Fixed stake: lowest variance, cleanest measurement of the model itself.
- Percentage bankroll: compounds on the way up, de-risks on the way down.
- Fractional Kelly: sizes by edge, but is sensitive to probability errors.
- Capped recovery: fastest short-run recovery, deepest drawdowns — highest risk.