Capped recovery

It tracks a money deficit, not a Martingale stage: every loss adds that stake to the deficit.

The next stake is (deficit + €10 target) / (odds − 1), so the price decides the size, not a multiplier.

Every stake is bounded by the bankroll percentage cap and the absolute cap; if the cap bites, the bet is marked RECOVERY_CAPPED and the unrecovered remainder stays tracked.

stake = (outstanding_deficit + target_profit) / (odds − 1), capped

• outstanding_deficit — Cumulative unrecovered losses still open
• target_profit — Net profit targeted on top of recovery (one base stake, €10)
• caps — max_stake_pct of bankroll and max_stake_multiple × base stake

Capped recovery stakes exactly the amount needed to clear the outstanding deficit plus one base-stake profit at the current price, and is then hard-capped — it is not a doubling Martingale.

Inputs used

• Outstanding recovery deficit (cumulative unrecovered losses)
• Target profit (one base stake, €10.00)
• Decimal price at lock
• This strategy's own live bankroll

stake = (outstanding_deficit + €10.00) / (odds − 1)

Limits and caps, applied in this order

• Bankroll share cap — no single stake may exceed 5% of that strategy's own live bankroll.
• Absolute cap — no single stake may exceed 10× the base stake (€100.00).
• Bankroll cap — a stake can never exceed the money the strategy actually has left.
• Minimum executable stake — below €1.00 the bet is declined and recorded as skipped.
• When a cap binds, the bet is flagged RECOVERY_CAPPED and the unrecovered remainder stays open on the deficit.

Rounding: Two decimal places (cents).

Bankroll behaviour: Losses are added to a tracked money deficit; a win subtracts the realised net profit from it. A capped win that only partially clears the deficit correctly leaves the remainder outstanding.

Sequence behaviour: Strictly stateful: the next stake cannot be computed until the previous bet has settled, because the deficit is an input to it.

Reset conditions: The deficit falls to zero as soon as a win's net profit covers it; the stake then returns to the base-stake-equivalent size.

• There is no stake multiplier and no doubling. The price, not a fixed ladder, decides the size.
• Because the required stake is divided by (odds − 1), a shorter price demands a larger stake — which is exactly when the caps are most likely to bind.

Documented against staking logic v2, from a €10.00 base stake. These figures are read from the same module the robot calls when it sizes a live paper bet.

• The deficit is per strategy and per ledger; it is never shared with the other three strategies.
• Every recovery bet stores its deficit before the bet, the target profit, the uncapped stake and the capped stake, so the whole ladder is auditable after the fact.

Risk profile: Highest of the four. The largest stakes arrive during the worst runs, which is the structural risk of any recovery plan, capped or not.

1. Deficit €0, price 2.10: stake = (€0 + €10) / 1.10 = €9.09.
2. That bet loses, so the deficit becomes €9.09. At a price of 2.00 the next stake is (€9.09 + €10) / 1.00 = €19.09.
3. If that also loses the deficit is €28.18, and the caps — 5% of bankroll and 10× the base stake — decide whether the next request can be met in full.

If the bet wins: A win subtracts its net profit from the deficit; once the deficit is cleared the stake returns to the base-stake-equivalent size.

If the bet loses: Each loss adds that stake to the deficit, so the next request grows. When a cap binds, the bet is flagged as capped and the remainder stays outstanding — this is the core risk.

Reset conditions: The deficit falls to zero as soon as realised net profit covers it. There is no stage ladder and no doubling multiplier.

• Short, shallow losing runs
• Bettors who fully accept a much deeper drawdown profile
• Comparison against bounded staking, to quantify recovery risk