Risk: Very high
Capped recovery
The stake steps up after a loss for a strictly limited number of stages, then resets. It is the highest-risk of the four.
How it works
Stage 0 is a normal percentage stake. Each loss moves up one stage and multiplies the stake.
The stage counter is hard-capped (3 by default), so a losing run cannot compound forever.
Any win resets the stage and the tracked deficit back to zero.
Formula
stake = bankroll × stake_pct × multiplier^stage, stage ≤ max_stages
- stage — Consecutive losses so far, capped at max_stages
- multiplier — Step-up per losing stage, e.g. 1.5×
- max_stages — Hard ceiling on the recovery ladder, e.g. 3
Worked example from a €10 base stake
- Stage 0: €10 (a normal percentage stake).
- Stage 1 after a loss: €10 × 1.5 = €15.
- Stage 2 after a second loss: €22.50. Stage 3 (the cap): €33.75 — the ladder cannot go higher.
If the bet wins: Any win clears the tracked deficit and returns the ladder to stage 0 with the base stake.
If the bet loses: Consecutive losses raise the stake until the stage cap. The largest stakes land during the worst runs — this is the core risk.
Reset conditions: A win, or reaching the maximum stage, resets the stage counter and the tracked deficit to zero.
Historical robot performance
Settled bets
2
Won / lost
1 / 1
Strike rate
50.0%
Average odds
2.95
Total staked
€20.00
Net P/L
€14.50
ROI
72.5%
Max drawdown
€10.00
Sample size: 2 settled bets. This is far too small a sample to draw conclusions from. Figures are published for transparency, not as evidence that any strategy is profitable.
Simulated bankroll: €1014.50 from a €1000.00 start. Paper mode — no real money is staked.
Advantages
- Recovers short losing runs quickly
- Bounded — not an unlimited Martingale
Disadvantages and risk
- Largest stakes land exactly during the worst runs
- Deepest drawdowns of the four
Overall risk rating: Very high.
When this strategy suits
- Short, shallow losing runs
- Bettors who fully accept a much deeper drawdown profile
- Comparison against bounded staking, to quantify recovery risk