BetBuddy Insights
Understanding football betting statistics
A betting record is only interpretable when strike rate, average odds, sample size and drawdown are read together. Any one of them in isolation can be made to look excellent, which is why every published figure on BetBuddy carries its sample size.
By BetBuddy Editorial Team · Editorial & research · Published · Last updated · 3 min read
The five figures worth reading
Each answers a different question, and the answers only make sense in combination.
| Statistic | Question it answers | Blind spot |
|---|---|---|
| Strike rate | How often bets win | Ignores price entirely |
| Average odds | What prices were taken | Says nothing about accuracy |
| ROI | What the bankroll earned | Meaningless on a small sample |
| Max drawdown | How bad it got | Backward-looking only |
| Closing line value | Were the prices good | Needs disciplined recording |
Strike rate and average odds move together
A 60% strike rate is excellent at average odds of 2.20 and catastrophic at 1.40. Break-even strike rate is 1 divided by average odds, so the only meaningful comparison is between the realised strike rate and that break-even figure.
break-even strike rate = 1 ÷ average odds
Sample size qualifies everything
Under a hundred settled bets, published figures are transparency rather than evidence. Several hundred are needed before a return separates from variance, and even then a confidence interval around the ROI is wide.
BetBuddy states the settled count beside its aggregates for exactly this reason, and the underlying ledger is public so the aggregate can be recomputed independently.
Warning signs in a published record
Betting carries financial risk and no staking plan removes it. Historical performance does not guarantee future results, and BetBuddy runs in paper mode: stakes are simulated and no bookmaker account is connected.
- No sample size next to the ROI.
- No losing bets visible anywhere.
- Prices quoted that were not available when the selection was published.
- A start date that happens to begin after a bad run.
- Returns described as guaranteed or risk-free — no betting return is either.
Reading a results table without fooling yourself
Strike rate is meaningless without average odds: 60% winners at 1.50 loses money, while 35% winners at 3.20 is strongly profitable. The two numbers only mean something together, and neither means much without the number of settled bets behind them.
Watch the denominators as well. Profit divided by turnover and profit divided by bankroll answer different questions, and a table that switches between them without saying so will flatter whichever plan turns over the most.
| Strike rate | Average odds | Return per €1 staked |
|---|---|---|
| 60% | 1.50 | −€0.10 |
| 50% | 2.10 | +€0.05 |
| 35% | 3.20 | +€0.12 |
Why BetBuddy's published numbers move
The statistics pages are computed from the settled ledger at request time rather than cached as a marketing figure, so they change as bets settle and they can fall as well as rise. Pending bets are excluded until a result is confirmed by the settlement layer.
Corrected historical figures are shown where staking formulas have since changed, with the original stored selections replayed through the current formulas. The selections themselves are never rewritten — only the sizing is recomputed, and the page says so.
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About the author
BetBuddy's editorial team writes the education library and reviews every article against the production system it describes. Formulas are taken from the code that runs the staking engine, and any performance figure quoted comes from the tracked results ledger rather than from an example.