How the BetBuddy robot analyses matches

Fixtures, results and prices are pulled on a schedule and matched across providers by team alias, competition and kickoff time. Settlement does not depend on a single paid provider: a keyless fallback layer confirms final results independently.

Drop Radar tracks price movement in high-volume 1X2 markets and separates sustained, broad-based drops from single-book corrections and normal oscillation. A drop is a candidate, never a bet.

An ensemble of a venue-split Poisson model, an Elo-style strength rating and recency-weighted form produces outcome probabilities. Data-freshness gates exclude teams whose current-season sample is too thin or too old to model honestly.

A candidate must clear a minimum edge against the de-margined market price and a minimum decimal price of 1.80. Failing either at any check removes it, and the removal is recorded rather than hidden.

• Minimum edge against the no-vig fair price.
• Minimum odds of 1.80 at the moment of locking.
• No lock earlier than two hours before kickoff.
• Re-check inside the window: if the price falls below the floor, the bet is dropped.

Each qualifying selection is staked simultaneously by all four strategies into four separate virtual bankrolls. After the final result is confirmed the bet is settled once, the ledger, statistics and bankroll are updated in a fixed sequence, and the next bet in the sequence becomes eligible.

Everything is paper mode: stakes are simulated and no bookmaker account is connected. Betting carries financial risk and no staking plan removes it. Historical performance does not guarantee future results, and BetBuddy runs in paper mode: stakes are simulated and no bookmaker account is connected.

Every candidate passes through the same sequence. Odds from multiple bookmakers are ingested and normalised to remove the margin; fixtures with stale or insufficient team data are rejected; the model produces outcome probabilities; edge is computed against the no-vig price; and only candidates clearing the minimum edge and the 1.80 minimum price survive.

Surviving candidates are not bets yet. They sit as WATCH, are re-priced as kick-off approaches, and become provisionally locked no earlier than two hours before the match. A candidate whose price has fallen below the floor, or whose edge has disappeared, is dropped at that point rather than honoured.

• Multi-bookmaker odds ingestion and margin removal.
• Freshness gates on team data and current-season sample size.
• Minimum 3% edge and minimum 1.80 price, applied without exception.
• Re-check inside the execution window before a bet is taken.

Results are confirmed through more than one free provider so that settlement never depends on a single paid feed. A bet moves through locked, live, result confirmed, settled, and only then updates history, statistics and bankroll — in that order, so the four strategy ledgers can never drift out of step with the underlying results.

Each strategy settles strictly in sequence: one bet, then its settlement, then the next. Every settled row stores its stake audit, so any published figure can be traced back to the bankroll, price and edge that produced it. BetBuddy remains paper mode throughout: no bookmaker account is connected and no stake is real money.