Guide
Over/Under 2.5 goals explained
Over/Under 2.5 goals is the most traded totals market in football. The half-goal line exists so the market cannot be tied: a match has either three or more goals, or two or fewer.
How it settles
Over 2.5 wins on 3 goals or more across the full match, including own goals but excluding extra time and penalties. Under 2.5 wins on 0, 1 or 2 goals. A 1-1 draw settles Under; a 2-1 win settles Over.
How it is priced
A Poisson model turns each team's expected goals into a distribution of scorelines, then adds up every scoreline with three or more goals. With expected goals of 1.5 and 1.1, the total expectancy of 2.6 gives roughly a 52% chance of Over 2.5 — close to an even-money fair price.
Common mistakes
Season-long goal averages are a weak input: they mix home and away performance, ignore opponent strength and lag behind squad changes. Venue-split expectancy adjusted for the specific opponent is a far better basis.